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Global Climate Policy Forecast Predicts ‘Well Below 2°C’ Paris Agreement Climate Goals Will be Met

The Inevitable Policy Response's (IPR) recent forecast analyzes expected global climate policies in major economies from now till 2050, indicating a probable adherence to the Paris Agreement's objective of limiting temperature rise to 'well below 2°C', and further efforts towards 1.5°C after temperatures peak. Derived from a meticulous tracking of over 300 climate policies and insights from over 100 climate policy experts across 12 countries, the forecast highlights accelerated policy actions, with about 90% in Advanced Economies and around 40% in Emerging Markets and Developing Economies supporting IPR's projections. Significant emission gaps are identified in China and India's coal power policies, and Russia's overall policy framework. The report underscores land use and meat consumption as key factors in emission control, alongside a notable shift towards electric vehicles and a halt in deforestation by 2030 in Brazil and Indonesia. Despite an optimistic outlook where global warming peaks below 1.8°C, only 3% of global policies align with the Paris Agreement's stringent 1.5°C target, emphasizing an urgent need for enhanced policy measures to bridge the remaining gaps.

Photo Credit: Guy Bowden

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